In the next 10 years, the period 2021 – 2030, Vietnam economy continues to have advantages and disadvantages. Opportunities and challenges would co-exist. This forecast comes from the 2019 mid-term economic review report of the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting.
According to the forecast, Vietnam economy in the next 10 years will grow an average of 7% / year (2021-2025) and 6.5% / year (2026-2030). Macro stability continues to maintain low inflation. Capital efficiency has improved and labor productivity has grown at 6% / year.
Specifically, in the next 10 years of Vietnam economy, macroeconomic would be more stable. Trust of the business and social community will increase. The quality of economic growth will be raised and continue to broaden.
However, the research team showed many potential risks.
That the public debt ratio is high, the risk of big bad debt, slow SOE reform. Institutional capacity has improved but has not met development needs. Low quality of human resources.
Vietnam is still at risk of middle-income trap and lagging behind other economies. The national financial opens wider than the level of economic development. This contains many risks of financial collapse. And the ability to cope with major fluctuations from the world financial market as well.
At the same time, economic growth is increasingly dependent on areas with foreign direct investment. And the dependence is becoming more apparent in recent years. Growth of the processing and manufacturing industry mainly come from FDI enterprises. The fluctuations in production and business strategies of these businesses can directly affect economic growth.
(*) Source: Cafebiz